Will Rhys Hoskins Rebound from his 2019 Second Half Slump and Become a Consistent Part of a Potentially Potent Phillies Offense?

It was late in the season in 2017. The Phillies had already traded away the last of the members of the 2008 World Championship team. Despite a fast start in April, including a six game winning streak at the end of the month, this was clearly a rebuilding year. This was the second full season for team President Andy MacPhail and General Manager Matt Klentak, and while fans were asked to endure some difficult times, there was supposedly promise in the years to come. Analysts promised fans that there was talent in the minor league system, just waiting to burst through and bring contention to the Phillies. One such prospect was Rhys Hoskins.

A fifth round draft pick in 2014, Hoskins impressed with his offensive prowess in the minors. In 2015, spending half his season each at low A Lakewood, and high A Clearwater, Hoskins batted .319 with 17 home runs. In the next season, he developed his power with AA Reading, hitting 38 home runs, just 2 behind his teammate and league leader Dylan Cozens. But while Cozen struggled to stay above the Mendoza Line in 2017 at AAA Lehigh Valley, Hoskins hit .286 in 115 games with the Iron Pigs. His performance was impressive, earning a spot on the MLB Futures game, along with teammate Scott Kingery, played on the Sunday before the Miami All-Star Game, July 9, 2017.

Hoskins made his major league debut on August 10, 2017, having hit 29 home runs with Lehigh Valley and knocked in 91 RBIs. Almost immediately, Hoskins demonstrated his power potential, hitting two home runs while batting clean-up in a losing effort against San Diego on August 14, 2017. Hoskins remained hot, as he became the fastest player to hit 18 home runs in the major leagues on September 14th. Although a first basemen in the minors, and while playing out position in left field due to the presence of Tommy Josephs on the Phils, Hoskins caught a fly ball that started a triple play against the defending World Champion Cubs on August 27th.

Nonetheless, some seeds of doubt were sown towards the end of September in 2017. Several analysts noted that he had a good chance to be the fastest player to reach 20 home runs before end of the season. However, as scouting reports caught up to Hoskins, and pitchers learned how to pitch to him, he did not hit another home run in 2017.

In the 2018 season, Hoskins faced the challenge of playing for a new manager, with Gabe Kapler taking over for Pete Mackanin. He would once again be playing out of position, as the Phillies had signed first baseman Carlos Santana in the off-season. Still, Hoskins hit his first home run of the season in the second game, on March 30th in Miami. Hoskins had 14 home runs by the All-Break, earning him a spot in the Home Run Derby. Despite being the eighth seed of the competition, Hoskins wowed the crowd, hitting 20 home runs in the semi-final round. That was a record at the time, that is until Kyle Schwarber broke it, batting immediately after Hoskins and eliminating him from the competition. Hoskins ended the season with 34 home runs and 96 RBIs. However, his batting average was a mere .246.

The 2019 season brought high expectations for both the Phillies, and Rhys Hoskins. The Phils had traded for one of the top catchers in the league, J.T. Realmuto, and an All-Star shortstop, Jean Segura. To get Segura, the Philles traded Santana to Seattle, solidifying Hoskins spot as the team's starting first baseman. On the free agency market, the Phillies signed outfielder Andrew McCutchen, and, of course, one of the top prizes of that winter's market, Bryce Harper. Having signed Harper, the Phillies now possessed what appeared to be a formidable one-two punch. Harper and Hoskins were expected to provide the power to the offense, which appeared daunting to opposing pitchers, at least on paper.

And why shouldn't it? Harper was a former MVP, and had given the Washington Nationals line-up quite a bite. Hoskins broke a Phillies record for reaching 30 career home runs, having done so in 120 games. The prior record holder was none other than Hall of Famer Chuck Klein, who had done so in 132 games. Hoskins also became the fastest Phillies to reach 100 career RBIs. Hoskins did so in 134 games.

But the 2019 season saw both Hoskins and the Phillies at first tease the hometown fans with first place baseball, only to go on to underachieve in the second half of the season. The Phillies jumped out of the starting gate, and remained in first place in the NL East until June 11th. The team then quickly went south, falling to third place by the All-Star break. The Phils would eventually fall to fourth place, and end the season at .500 with an 81-81 record.

Likewise, Hoskins had hit a respectable 20 home runs by the break, with 59 RBIs. His batting average was .263. But in the second half, Hoskins went long streaks without getting a hit. While he ended the season with 29 home runs, this meant he only 9 after the All-Star break. Moreover, his second half batting average dropped to .180, bringing his season average down to .226.

What went wrong for Hoskins in the second half? For one thing, Hoskins ended the season leading the league in fly-ball percentage. Coincidentally, Hoskins' launch angle increased from around 18.4 degrees in his rookie season of 2017 to around 25 degrees in 2019. Whether this almost 6 degree jump in launch angle was due to coaching or his own individual effort, it appears to correlate with his high tendency to hit fly-balls. As if to confirm that the rise in launch angle contributed to his slump, a graph of his batted balls in 2019 shows a definite trend of an increasing launch angle as the season progressed.

An additional problems appears to be an effort to move away from being a pull hitter, to using the entire field in his at-bats. Hoskins power reveals itself when he pulls the ball. Indeed, of his rookie season home runs, only the last one was an opposite field blast. Likewise, graphs showed a marked difference between the first half of the 2019 season, when Hoskins pulled the ball more often, and hit the ball farther, and the second half, where Hoskins spread the ball around more, but appeared to lose his distance.

One writer, Robert Orr, summed Hoskins' slump in 2019 in one main problem: he did not have "a consistent swing plane."

To be certain, one slump early in a player's career is no reason to panic. Fans may recall that Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt' rookie season was dreadful. In 1973, Schmidt hit a pathetic .196, with only 18 home runs and 52 RBIs. Yet, the Phillies did not give up on Schmitty. By 1974 he was an All-Star, leading the league with 36 home runs.

Ryan Howard said of Hoskins, "I think he just got out of his element." As if to emphasize that this was no time to give up on Rhys, Howard continued, "There's just times in your career when you can have those moments."

Hoskins comes into 2020 with another new manager, and a new hitting coach. Joe Girardi, veteran manager who won the 2009 World Series with the Yankees, noted in December that the new hitting coach, Joe Dillon, had already begun working with Hoskins. Girardi expressed confidence that if Hoskins' mechanics were sound, he would have a big year.

The 2020 season will be a critical one for Hoskins. The season will show whether Hoskins can leave his second half slump behind him, and return to form in order to serve as the slugger that the Phillies need him to be. With Andrew McCutchen returning from a season-ending knee injury last year, the Phillies have an opportunity to be a consistent offensive threat in 2020. A rebounded Rhys Hoskins could play a large role in helping to provide that consistency to the Phillies faithful.