Phillies May Be Playing It Smart by Not Concluding a One Year Agreement with Aaron Nola Right Now
The news at the end of Friday was that the Phillies had avoided arbitration with five of the six players eligible this year. That one player with whom the Phillies have not reached an agreement is Aaron Nola. News reports indicate that Nola seeks $6.75 from the arbitrator, while the Phillies want the aribitrator to award $4.5 million.
Many Phillies fans are incensed over this. Nola has been the Phillies’ most consistent starting pitcher over the last three years. Last year, he finished third in the voting for the NL Cy Young Award, with a record of 17-6 and an ERA of 2.37. Surely Nola has been the Phillies’ most promising prospect in the latest rebuilding process. How can the Phillies be so greedy as to let Nola slip into an embarrassing and potentially damaging process of arbitration over two million dollars? This is especial egregious given that the Phillies May be poised to conclude long-term $300 million contracts with not one, but two free agents, neither of whom are without their detractors in the City of Brotherly Love.
The problem with this view, however, is that it is short-sighted. Indeed, Phillies fans may be the victims of bad reporting which fails to explain baseball’s complex personnel rules appropriately.
The average baseball fan may understand that arbitration is a process through which Aaron Nola’s agent will sing his praises, while the Phillies will give reasons why Nola’s play is not worth the money for which he is asking. Being in a position where your team is saying bad things about you to a third party is certainly awkward, and most certainly creates bad feelings. Why, then, are the Phillies risking bad blood with their star pitcher over a measley $2.25 million?
The Phillies, however, may have absolutely no intention to go forward with arbitration. Indeed, Friday’s exchange of arbitration salary numbers is being portrayed as a deadline to avoid arbitration. Having reached that deadline without an agreement, unsophisticated sports reporters, and consequently fans less knowledgeable of baseball’s personnel rules, seem to believe that Nola and the Phillies are now bound to go through with the arbitration hearing. But this is not necessarily true. The Phillies and Nola can avoid arbitration by concluding an agreement at any time before the hearing. Indeed, the fact that the Phillies have not yet reached a one year deal with Nola may actual be a good sign.
To understand it all, the average fan needs to understand the rules surrounding how a player becomes a free agent. Once drafted, the player is bound to the team that drafted for three years. If, during those three years, the player is placed on the team’s 40 man roster, the team gets three more years of control until the player gets the right of salary arbitration. Salary arbitration gives the team one more year of control until the player becomes a free agent. At any along this path, the player and the team are permitted to reach a long-term contract to ensure a long-term relationship.
As for arbitration, the basic concept involves the player to submit a salary number and the team to submit a salary number to each other and the arbitrator. This has to be done by a set date before there can be an arbitration hearing. The parties then argue to the arbitrator why their respective number is more appropriate given the player’s performance. Of course, that means the team must be prepared to say less than flattering things about the player while the player is present at the hearing. This is where awkwardness comes in, and why the hearing can create bad blood.
But the deadline is for the sake of the arbitration process itself. That is, it is meant to permit each side to prepare for the hearing. The player and the team can avoid arbitration by concluding a deal at anytime before the hearing. Certainly, concluding an agreement before the deadline to submit the salary numbers to the arbitrator avoids arbitration. But the deadline is not really a deadline to avoid arbitration in the sense that if the parties do not conclude an agreement they are absolutely required to finish the arbitration process. It is merely a procedural deadline to ensure both parties know where each other stands before going into the hearing.
Why then, would a team fail to reach an agreement before this deadline even if the team would like to avoid arbitration? The answer is that it gives the team time to negotiate a deal that is more complicated than a one year deal. Whether the result of the negotiations is a one deal or an arbitration award, the fact is that at the end of the season the player will become a free agent. If the player figures into the team’s long-term strategy, the team may be motivated to conclude a multi-year deal instead of a one year deal in order to prevent the player from entering free agency.
This is what happened in the case of Mike Trout. The Angels were able to conclude a long-term agreement to secure his services without risking the loss of Trout through free agency.
In the same vein, last year the Nationals concluded a one year deal with Bryce Harper to avoid arbitration. But, while this allowed the Nationals and Harper to stay on good terms, it also signaled Harper’s strong desire to test the free agency market.
The fact that the Phillies have not yet concluded a deal with Nola may actually be a sign that the Phillies are attempting to negotiate a long-term agreement with Nola, and thus avoid free agency. It could be that the Phillies need the time to figure out how the Harper and Manny Machado situation concludes. If the Phillies reach an agreement with either or even both players, it will determine how much money they reasonably have left in their war chest, enabling the Phillies to make a more serious offer of a long-term agreement with Nola.
Not reaching a deal with Nola right now is not necessarily a bad move for the Phillies. It does not obligate the parties to go through with arbitration. Rather, this may just give the parties time to reach a long-term agreement and avoid losing Nola to free agency. In this regard, if the parties reach a one year deal before the arbitration hearing may be a bad sign, as it may signal Nola’s intention to test the free agency market.
By: William J. Kovatch, Jr.
Many Phillies fans are incensed over this. Nola has been the Phillies’ most consistent starting pitcher over the last three years. Last year, he finished third in the voting for the NL Cy Young Award, with a record of 17-6 and an ERA of 2.37. Surely Nola has been the Phillies’ most promising prospect in the latest rebuilding process. How can the Phillies be so greedy as to let Nola slip into an embarrassing and potentially damaging process of arbitration over two million dollars? This is especial egregious given that the Phillies May be poised to conclude long-term $300 million contracts with not one, but two free agents, neither of whom are without their detractors in the City of Brotherly Love.
The problem with this view, however, is that it is short-sighted. Indeed, Phillies fans may be the victims of bad reporting which fails to explain baseball’s complex personnel rules appropriately.
The average baseball fan may understand that arbitration is a process through which Aaron Nola’s agent will sing his praises, while the Phillies will give reasons why Nola’s play is not worth the money for which he is asking. Being in a position where your team is saying bad things about you to a third party is certainly awkward, and most certainly creates bad feelings. Why, then, are the Phillies risking bad blood with their star pitcher over a measley $2.25 million?
The Phillies, however, may have absolutely no intention to go forward with arbitration. Indeed, Friday’s exchange of arbitration salary numbers is being portrayed as a deadline to avoid arbitration. Having reached that deadline without an agreement, unsophisticated sports reporters, and consequently fans less knowledgeable of baseball’s personnel rules, seem to believe that Nola and the Phillies are now bound to go through with the arbitration hearing. But this is not necessarily true. The Phillies and Nola can avoid arbitration by concluding an agreement at any time before the hearing. Indeed, the fact that the Phillies have not yet reached a one year deal with Nola may actual be a good sign.
To understand it all, the average fan needs to understand the rules surrounding how a player becomes a free agent. Once drafted, the player is bound to the team that drafted for three years. If, during those three years, the player is placed on the team’s 40 man roster, the team gets three more years of control until the player gets the right of salary arbitration. Salary arbitration gives the team one more year of control until the player becomes a free agent. At any along this path, the player and the team are permitted to reach a long-term contract to ensure a long-term relationship.
As for arbitration, the basic concept involves the player to submit a salary number and the team to submit a salary number to each other and the arbitrator. This has to be done by a set date before there can be an arbitration hearing. The parties then argue to the arbitrator why their respective number is more appropriate given the player’s performance. Of course, that means the team must be prepared to say less than flattering things about the player while the player is present at the hearing. This is where awkwardness comes in, and why the hearing can create bad blood.
But the deadline is for the sake of the arbitration process itself. That is, it is meant to permit each side to prepare for the hearing. The player and the team can avoid arbitration by concluding a deal at anytime before the hearing. Certainly, concluding an agreement before the deadline to submit the salary numbers to the arbitrator avoids arbitration. But the deadline is not really a deadline to avoid arbitration in the sense that if the parties do not conclude an agreement they are absolutely required to finish the arbitration process. It is merely a procedural deadline to ensure both parties know where each other stands before going into the hearing.
Why then, would a team fail to reach an agreement before this deadline even if the team would like to avoid arbitration? The answer is that it gives the team time to negotiate a deal that is more complicated than a one year deal. Whether the result of the negotiations is a one deal or an arbitration award, the fact is that at the end of the season the player will become a free agent. If the player figures into the team’s long-term strategy, the team may be motivated to conclude a multi-year deal instead of a one year deal in order to prevent the player from entering free agency.
This is what happened in the case of Mike Trout. The Angels were able to conclude a long-term agreement to secure his services without risking the loss of Trout through free agency.
In the same vein, last year the Nationals concluded a one year deal with Bryce Harper to avoid arbitration. But, while this allowed the Nationals and Harper to stay on good terms, it also signaled Harper’s strong desire to test the free agency market.
The fact that the Phillies have not yet concluded a deal with Nola may actually be a sign that the Phillies are attempting to negotiate a long-term agreement with Nola, and thus avoid free agency. It could be that the Phillies need the time to figure out how the Harper and Manny Machado situation concludes. If the Phillies reach an agreement with either or even both players, it will determine how much money they reasonably have left in their war chest, enabling the Phillies to make a more serious offer of a long-term agreement with Nola.
Not reaching a deal with Nola right now is not necessarily a bad move for the Phillies. It does not obligate the parties to go through with arbitration. Rather, this may just give the parties time to reach a long-term agreement and avoid losing Nola to free agency. In this regard, if the parties reach a one year deal before the arbitration hearing may be a bad sign, as it may signal Nola’s intention to test the free agency market.
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