Are the 2016 Phillies Really That Bad?

Original thinking is not necessarily the hallmark of sports reporting these days.  It’s more like a pack mentality.  Here we are at the beginning of Spring Training.  No games have been played, and the roster has not been set.  Indeed, for the Phillies, this is a year of major transitions.  Yet, before anyone truly knows who is going to be on the major league club, all of the major outlets are simply assuming that the Phils will be as bad, if not worse, than last year.

Quite frankly, I find this nothing more than lazy reporting.  Certainly, the theme for the Phillies this year is that of change; long awaited change.  Thankfully, the new guard has chosen to build through youth.  What this means is that the major league roster will be full of players with a limited track record from which to judge.  For those who make a living off of prognostication, the Phillies present a particularly difficult problem, that of uncertainty.  Faced with uncertainty, most are simply falling back on the prior year’s catastrophe as a guide, even though few of the players on this year’s roster will have been on the roster last year.

This raises the question: Are the Phillies really as bad as everyone expects them to be?

The fact is, there is a lot for Phillies fans to be optimistic about.  But that optimism needs to be tempered with a realization that in some cases, many players on this team are simply untested. In other case, the Phillies are taking a risk with players who have shown promise in the past but have fallen on hard times recently.

Offensively, fans can look forward to the return of third baseman Maikel Franco.  In just 80 games last year, Franco hit .280 with14 home runs and 50 RBIs.  His season was interrupted by a fractured wrist suffered when Jeremy Hellickson hit him with a pitched ball.  After losing most of August and all of September, Franco returned for the last three games of the season, raising his average from .276 to .280, with three hits, one home run and two RBIs.  Franco could inject power into the 2016 line-up. This spring, Mike Schmidt has already suing Franco’s praises, claiming that there3 could be an MVP award in his future.

Also returning in 2015 will be Odubel Herrera, who impressed after the Phillies selected him in the Rule 5 Draft.  Herrera had spent most of his minor league career as an infielder.  The Phillies converted him to a center fielder, and his defense proved adequate.  Offensively, Herrera hit .297 with 8 home runs and 64 runs scored.  Herrera kept his skills sharp in winter ball, hitting .426 and scoring 7 runs in 11games.  The run continued in the exhibition game against the University of Tampa, when Herrera had two hits, a stolen base, one run and an RBI.

Joining Herrera in the outfield will likely be Aaron Altherr, a late season call-up in 2015.  He started the 2015 in Reading, hitting .293 with 29 runs scored and 8 stolen bases in 60 games.  After being promoted to Lehigh Valley, Altherr hit .294 with 36 runs and 8 stolen bases in 51 games.  In the Tampa exhibition game, ALtherr went 1 for 3, with a run scored and a stolen base.

One of the big unknowns for the Phillies is outfielder Tyler Goeddel.  The Phillies selected Goeddel with the first pick overall in the 2015 Rule 5 draft.  This means the Phillies must keep Goeddel on its major league roster for the entire season, or offer him back to Tampa Bay.  Goeddel is considered a solid defensive player.  While he has never played above the AA, his minor league career has shown a steady progression offensively.  In his first year of A ball, Goeddel hit .246 with a .335 on base percentage and a .371 slugging percentage.  In his second year, he hit .249, with a .313 on base percentage and a .389 slugging percentage.  Those numbers improves to .269, .349 and .408 in advanced A ball, and .279, .350 and .433 in AA.  Goeddel hit 12 home runs last season, with 8 of them coming in the last two months of the season.  He also hit .385 against lefties.

On the mound, the Phillies expect the return of young arms Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff.  Both put up impressive numbers last year.  The question is whether they can continue with a full year in the majors.  Of concern is Eickhoff’s fractured thumb, which he suffered while practicing bunting.  However, he has started throwing from the mound again, and is not expected to miss any time in the regular season.

An interesting story that is developing in Clearwater is who will be the Opening Day pitcher, with Nola and Jeremy Hellickson as the favorites.  The Phillies are hoping Hellickson can return to his 2011 Rookie of the Year form, when he went 13-10 with Tampa Bay, posting an ERA of .295.  In his career, Hellickson is 49-48 with a 3.98 ERA.

At this point, the bullpen is a big question mark, with the Phils attempting to resuscitate the careers of former closers Andrew Bailey, Ernesto Fieri, Edward Mujica and James Russell.  All have been signed to minor league contracts and are non-roster invitees to training camp.

Another interesting question mark is the Phillies’ second 2015 Rule 5 Draft selection, Daniel Stumpf.  With the Royals’ AA affiliate in 2015, Stumpf, a left hander, went 5-4, with a 3.57 ERA and 3 saves.  Stumpf has a complete game no-hitter to his claim.  Although if he makes the major league roster, it will likely be in the bullpen.  Like Goeddel, the Phillies must either keep Stumpf on the major league roster, or offer him back to Kansas City.

Waiting in the wings will be Jorge Alfaro, a highly touted catcher obtained in the Cole Hammels deal, and shortstop J.P. Crawford.  Both are expected to start the season in the minors for further development.  However, at this time, Crawford is considered a possible mid-season call-up. 

There are certainly no guarantees this season.  But the Phillies have turned a corner, no longer relying on the talent that won them the World Series in 2008.  For a patient fan, the 2016 season should prove interesting at the least.  With a little luck, the Phillies just might surprise the nay-sayers and show some improvement.

(Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images, 2011)

By:  William J. Kovatch, Jr.

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