Comments on the Proposed New Playoff Format
But so far, we have not reached the most unusual part of the proposal. Two of the three teams hosting the first round of playoffs would get to choose their opponent from the bottom three wild card teams. The division winner in this first round with the best record would have first choice. The final division winner would get the second choice. The top wild card team would then play the one wild card team leftover. Reportedly, the teams choosing their next opponent would make their choice on television on the Sunday before the first round of the playoffs begin.
MLB Network commentators sang the merits of the proposal on the day the story broke. The league hopes that by expanding the number of teams making the playoffs, this will make the end of the season more relevant to a greater number of cities, thus promoting higher television ratings and selling more end of the season tickets. Giving the division winners and the top wild card team not only home field advantage, but also the ability to choose their opponents, would also hopefully make their end of the season more meaningful.
Moreover, one of the greatest criticisms of the current playoff format is that it relies on just one game to decide which wild card team advances to the league divisional series. Critics note that baseball has traditionally revolved around the series. Plus, relying on one game, while exciting to fans, means that a single strong pitching performance, or a single game where a team's offense gets hot, decides the winner.
The change in the playoff format must be negotiated with the players, and included in the next collective bargaining agreement. For this reason, the new format would not begin until 2022, if approved.
The proposal does have merits to it. "September baseball" has become somewhat of a derisive term. At times, certain teams have run away with their division, rendering the much of the last month of the season meaningless. Giving the teams with the best records something to play for will make games in September more meaningful. Likewise, expanding the number of wild cards from two to four will also give more teams with winning records a reason to play harder in September. Hopefully, closer wild card races and more meaningful games for division leaders will translate into greater interest among the fan base, and thus more ticket sales ad higher television ratings.
The fact is, baseball is no longer a sport with just eight teams in each league. Since 1961, baseball has been gradually expanding, adding two teams every few years. Back before expansion, having one team from each league make the World Series made sure the regular season was meaningful. But now, where there are fifteen teams in each league, it makes sense to make more teams to be involved in the playoffs, to keep fans from more cities invested through the end of the season.
The first round bye for the team with the best record in each league, and the pecking order for choosing the next opponent are both interesting concepts. These proposals stem from an assumption that a well-rested team will have a better shot of winning their round and moving on in the playoffs. For the team with the first round bye, not much will change, considering that the division leaders currently have a bye, while the two wild card teams duke it out in their single game playoff. For the teams choosing their opponents, the conventional wisdom would be for the top team to choose the team that had to battle up until the final day of the season, and thus may be a little beat-up once they reach that first round.
But that assumption has not always come to fruition in baseball. That is because baseball is very much a game of momentum, due to the repetitive nature of the sport. Hitters need to be consistent with their timing and their mechanics to be successful. This can be seen when a team struggles after facing a knuckle ball thrower. Knuckle balls are thrown at a slower speed than fast balls and breaking pitches. This, combine with the erratic movement caused by the lack of spin, tends to cause a team to lose its timing offensively when facing a knuckle ball pitcher. The adverse effects can sometimes leach into games after facing the knuckle baller.
More impressively, when teams play meaningful games further into the season, their players tend to retain their timing, and thus maintain their momentum into the playoffs. The 2011 Phillies, for example, clinched early and rested key players. Beginning on September 18th, the Phillies fell into an eight game losing streak, which had no effect on their standing as division leader. Although the team won its last four games of the season, in the first round of the playoffs, many thought that the hitters had lost their timing. As a result, the team that boasted the best record in the National League, as well as a team record for wins with 102, lost to the wild card team in the first round of the playoffs.
This leads to the topic of how wild card teams perform in baseball. In this regard, baseball stands as an anomaly when compared to football. In baseball, teams that fight to the last day to make the playoffs, and then win the wild card game have a tendency to ride their momentum into the playoffs. Indeed, in the twenty-five years that baseball has had wild card teams, an impressive seven such teams have won the World Series. A bye, therefore, may not be as much of an advantage as the conventional wisdom may suggest. Nor may it be as advantageous to play the team that has fought hard up to the last day to make the payoffs.
Choosing the opponent for the first round may lead to other interesting choices. A team may choose a divisional rival, which would boost interest with home fans. If, for example, the Phillies had the choice, and could choose the Mets, this might ensure intense interest in the first round series, since Phillies fans tend to hate the Mets the most.
Teams could also choose to face opponents that have become strong playoff rivals. For example, the Phillies have faced the Dodgers five times in the playoffs dating back to 1977, more than any other team the Phils have faced. Each round against the Dodgers has been intense and exciting. If the Phillies had the choice, they could spark fan interest by choosing to face the Dodgers in the first round.
Thus, some aspects of the proposal does appear to be well-designed to keep fan interest high late into the season, and through the playoffs.
The biggest concern, however, is with the lengthening of the season. As it stands, teams play 162 games each year, by far more than any other sport. That wear and tear has an effect on the players. Expanding the playoffs will certainly place greater physical strain on the players, and create a greater chance of injury.
More importantly, more rounds in the playoffs will expand the season. As it is, the World Series goes well into October already. Likewise, Spring Training games have begun earlier and earlier, and Opening Day now takes place in March. We have already seen snow-outs in the early part of the season, and at least one World Series, 2008, delayed a few days due to freezing rain. Adding a three game playoff, instead of a one game playoff, risks having the World Series end in November. This could court more delays due to foul weather, such as snow in certain parts of the country.
For this reason, changing the current playoff format to include more teams and a new round only makes sense if the regular season were shortened. This should not be a radical idea, as baseball had a 154 game schedule until 1961. Cutting back to 154 games could reduce the wear and tear on players, while at the same time reduce the chances of snow-outs in the World Series.
The Players' Union will have a lot to think about when it considers the new playoff proposal. While there are good things in the proposal, it would not be wise to rush into things until the disadvantages are given serious thought. Because the playoff format would be a result of negotiations, if the format were to change, the final form may not be exactly what has been proposed this year. But a format that keeps more fans involved late into the season would be a welcome change.
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