Phillies' Early Season Success Has Been a Pleasant Surprise


At 18-14, this Phillies team has been fun to watch.  Some might even say surprising.  Although, for those who were paying attention in Spring Training, this early season success isn’t that surprising.  This was a team that, according to some pundits, was supposed to be tanking.  Yet the Phils sprinted out to a 10-3 record in the early Spring, and it looked like they didn’t know that they were supposed to lose.  Now, just as the early Spring Training success signaled cautious optimism, so too should this early season success.  There are still over 100 games to go in the regular season. 

Nonetheless, watching the pundits react with surprise has been amusing.  Sportswriters, quite frankly, are not known for original thought.  Pre-season prognostication of gloom and doom appeared to be nothing more than lazy group think.  Many of the predictions were based on the dismal 2015 season.  Indeed, ESPN in one article noted that few of the players from the 2015 team were returning to the 2016 team, yet still used 2015 as its guide to predict the Phillies to end up dead last in the league.

To be clear, none of the pitchers in the Phillies starting rotation were on the 2015 Opening Day roster.  Towards the end of the season, we had a glimpse at how effective Aaron Nola and Jarod Eickhoff could be.  But no one had any idea that Vince Velasquez would emerge as such a power pitcher.

Another problem with the preseason predictions was that they were based heavily on the new SABR metrics.  The problem with relying so heavily on statistics, however, is that while stats can be a good guide to trends, they are not perfect predictors.

Trends are just that: trends.  They can give you a general look at the direction in which a particular player or team is going.  But teams and players have been known to buck the trend.  Take Roger Maris for instance.  Over his career, his stats would tell you that he was an above-average player.  But he was not a Hall of Famer.  Certainly, his career statistics alone would not have led one to believe that he was going to be the player to break Babe Ruth’s single season home run record.

And one of the things that the Phillies are doing now is bucking the trend.  Statistical trends show that run differential over the long haul is a good predictor of winning percentage.  The more a team outscores its opponents, the greater the number of wins there should be.

But so far, that trend has not rung true for the Phillies.  When they win, often is have been by close scores.  The Phillies are leading the league in wins in one run games at 11-3.  But when they lose, the Phillies have been blown out.  The result is that the Phillies’ run differential is in the negatives.  To statisticians, this should correspond to a losing record.

One thing statistics has shown is that at this point, the Phillies’ offense has been subpar.  They are getting very little production from the outfield, with the notable exception of centerfielder Odubel Herrera.  What the Phillies have been getting is exceptional starting pitching from their young arms, combined with some spectacular defensive play.

 Already this season, players like Peter Bourjos, Tyler Goeddel and Maikel Franco have made defensive plays suitable for any highlight reel.  But Bourjos and Goeddel are hitting below the Mendoza line, and recently Franco has been in something of a funk.  But with Nola, Eickhoff and Velasquez pitching well and the offense sputtering, spectacular run saving defensive plays have turned out to be game saving plays.

Likewise, the Phillies have benefited from the mistakes of their opponents.  Over the weekend, the Phillies may have taken 2 out of 3 in Miami.  But in those two wins, sloppy Marlins’ fielding gave the Phillies the chance to take late inning leads.  With Hector Nerris and Jeanmar Gomez shining in their late inning relief roles, that was all that the Phillies needed.

Can the Phillies’ winning ways be sustained over the long haul?  Or will the lack of offense eventually put too much pressure on the pitching staff?  That remains to be seen.  Certainly, no one should expect that the result of this season will be a Phillies team in the play-offs.  But for now, it is fun riding the wave of victory.

By: William J. Kovatch, Jr.

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